The boundaries of some Asian countries result from historical accident rather than longstanding national identities. In a decade that has witnessed the disintegration of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, the foundation of many new states and the reunification of Germany, the inviolability of countries or nation states is called into question. Neither separatist movements nor unifying forces in Asia Pacific should be underestimated. One cannot help thinking of indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, although none is under imminent threat.
China is a special case because of its size and history. In contrast with the ASEA.N countries, it is racially rather homogeneous with tightly controlled minorities,
and religion has no important role. This, and the strong desire of the Chin1 leadership to re-establish itself as a superpower, argues strongly against the probabil of a break-up such as happened in the former Soviet Union. However, minorit harbour dissidents who may be prepared to fight for independence; econoi disparities between China's coastal regions and its hinterland could also threaten country's unity in the long run. With potential disintegration looming in background, China has reintegrated Hong Kong, will soon bring home Macao, and actively pursuing the reunion with Taiwan. The latter raises by far the most criti issues, in terms of sovereignty and self-determination. Taiwan's fate will have a stro impact on the stability of the whole region.
In the split nation of Korea, the border between North and South will eventua disappear. While South Korean officials draw up plans for a slow, smooth transitic crisis management will probably be needed once the physical and ideological barrh that keep an homogeneous people apart are dismantled. A united Korea will internally unstable and externally weak, to the relief of its neighbours who fear t emergence of an assertive and militarily strong united country.
There are several territorial disputes in the region, some of them between ASE} countries, others between China and its neighbours. The major bones of contention the Kurile Islands in the north of Japan and various small islands in the China Sea. T Kuriles, currently occupied by Russia, belong historically to Japan; they are the cau for cool bilateral relations. China's seizing of the Spratly Islands, which are claimed several countries, raises suspicions about further expansionist moves.
Ideological differences have lost significance since the end of the Cold War. W the exception of North Korea, the probability of a conflict between communist ai non-communist nations has receded. Pressure to improve the economic well-being their people has pushed governments towards pragmatism, while the major commun powers have withdrawn their support from smaller countries and undergroui movements in the region.
Internally, however, ideological antagonism still exists. In China and Vietnam ti authorities persecute those who dare question the monopoly of the Communist pail Hard-line anti-communist countries such as Indonesia suppress even movemer vaguely leaning towards socialist ideas. In Cambodia, a civil war based on ideologic differences rages on.
Great power rivalries continue to shape the foreign policies of Asia Paci] countries, though in a new way. The former Soviet Union has faded away. Althoul Russia remains geographically an Asia Pacific country, its influence has becon negligible. This decline is more than compensated for by the re-emergence of China. nuclear power in the 1960s, a permanent member of the security council of the UN the beginning of the 1970s, China has taken a truly leading role in the region sin internal turmoil and ideological warfare with its neighbours subsided. Today, wi Hong Kong, Taiwan and the Overseas Chinese in its orbit, China is undoubtedly superpower.
China's influence is only partly balanced by Japan - a country often described as an economic giant but a political dwarf. The subliminal rivalry between the two rarely surfaces, but clearly exists. It is complicated by a long relationship, embittered by Japan's invasion of China in the 1930s and 1940s. Since the Japanese emperor's visit to
China in 1992, the two countries oPenly acknowledge their mutual economic dependence, and bilateral relations have warmed considerably. Japanese capital is pouring into China. Japan, however, remains wary of China's recent political assertiveness and the newly belligerent orientation of its armed forces.
With large military bases in Japan and South Korea and a naval fleet, the USA balances the influence of Japan and the growing assertiveness of China, and provides a security umbrella for the whole of Asia Pacific. Politically, it has close bilateral ties with a number of Asian countries and tries to direct their governments towards US ideals such as democracy, human rights or market liberalization. Through its membership of APEC, the USA has found a way to extend its influence multilaterally.
Culturally, US influence ranges from Hollywood films and hard rock caf to hamburgers, chewing gum and, more importantly, its prestigious universities where Asian families are proud to enroll their brightest children. In none of these dimensions can China or Japan match the influence of the USA, although its efforts to impose its own values on Asian societies lead to occasional anti-American outbursts. Asia, however, largely acknowledges the stabilizing role of the USA. Japan simultaneously opposes and appreciates its interdependence with the USA. China rejects Americans meddling in its affairs, but at the same time admires its enormous financial, military and technological power. Deep down, the other Asia Pacific powers trust neither Japan nor China to secure their future. As a neutral, non-Asian superpower in Asia, the USA thus remains welcome, if only as a lesser evil.
As the twentieth century ends, Asia finds itself dominated by one non-Asian and two Asian superpowers. It is doubtful whether this constellation can provide the
stability which the region needs to continue its rapid economic development.
Suspicions are that two of the players will collude to undermine the position of the third.
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